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VfL Halle vs International Leipzig — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

VfL Halle
VfL Halle
CANC
12:00
International Leipzig
International Leipzig
11/28/2020Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 13HWG-Stadion am Zoo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

VfL Halle58%
×Draw20%
International Leipzig22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Halle
2.29
International Leipzig
1.37

VfL Halle creates 67% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 22 away

creates per match

VfL Halle
2.04
International Leipzig
1.36

allows per match

VfL Halle
1.37
International Leipzig
2.55

finishing

VfL Halle+0.00on par
International Leipzig+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Halle ↓

International Leipzig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

VfL Halle or draw
78%
VfL Halle or International Leipzig
80%
Draw or International Leipzig
42%

Winning margin

VfL Halle wins by 2+
36%
International Leipzig wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

VfL Halle 1+ goals
90%
VfL Halle 2+ goals
66%
VfL Halle 3+ goals
40%
International Leipzig 1+ goals
75%
International Leipzig 2+ goals
40%
International Leipzig 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

VfL Halle (draw refunded)
72%
International Leipzig (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Halle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

International Leipzig away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Halle attack 2.04 + International Leipzig defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.29

International Leipzig attack 1.36 + VfL Halle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

VfL Halle scores more
58%
level
20%
International Leipzig scores more
22%

VfL Halle at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "VfL Halle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: VfL Halle host International Leipzig

November 28, 2020: VfL Halle take on International Leipzig in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

VfL Halle host International Leipzig at HWG-Stadion am Zoo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.