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VfL Halle vs Arnstadt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

VfL Halle
VfL Halle
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Arnstadt
Arnstadt
4/21/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 24HWG-Stadion am Zoo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

VfL Halle62%
×Draw20%
Arnstadt19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Halle
2.25
Arnstadt
1.16

VfL Halle creates 94% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 31 away

creates per match

VfL Halle
2.04
Arnstadt
0.94

allows per match

VfL Halle
1.37
Arnstadt
2.45

finishing

VfL Halle+0.00on par
Arnstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Halle ↓

Arnstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

VfL Halle or draw
81%
VfL Halle or Arnstadt
80%
Draw or Arnstadt
38%

Winning margin

VfL Halle wins by 2+
39%
Arnstadt wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

VfL Halle 1+ goals
89%
VfL Halle 2+ goals
65%
VfL Halle 3+ goals
39%
Arnstadt 1+ goals
69%
Arnstadt 2+ goals
32%
Arnstadt 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

VfL Halle (draw refunded)
77%
Arnstadt (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Halle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

Arnstadt away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Halle attack 2.04 + Arnstadt defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.25

Arnstadt attack 0.94 + VfL Halle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

VfL Halle scores more
62%
level
20%
Arnstadt scores more
19%

VfL Halle at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "VfL Halle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VfL Halle vs Arnstadt

VfL Halle beat Arnstadt 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at HWG-Stadion am Zoo in Saale.