VfL Bochum 3–1 Rot-Weiß Essen: Result & Stats

VfL Bochum

3 – 1

Rot-Weiß Essen

Mats Pannewig 69'

Philipp Hofmann 64'

Myron Boadu 22'

Ahmet Arslan 36'

9/5/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

VfL Bochum23%

×Draw19%

Rot-Weiß Essen57%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL BochumExpected goals in this matchRot-Weiß Essen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

2.42

VfL Bochum

1.51

Rot-Weiß Essen

2.42

Rot-Weiß Essen creates 60% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

1.80

creates per match

3.33

1.50

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

VfL Bochum

1.80

Rot-Weiß Essen

3.33

allows per match

VfL Bochum

1.50

Rot-Weiß Essen

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfL Bochum+0.00on par

Rot-Weiß Essen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Bochum ↓

Rot-Weiß Essen →

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

VfL Bochum or draw

43%

VfL Bochum or Rot-Weiß Essen

81%

Draw or Rot-Weiß Essen

77%

Winning margin

VfL Bochum wins by 2+

10%

Rot-Weiß Essen wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

VfL Bochum 1+ goals

78%

VfL Bochum 2+ goals

44%

VfL Bochum 3+ goals

19%

Rot-Weiß Essen 1+ goals

91%

Rot-Weiß Essen 2+ goals

69%

Rot-Weiß Essen 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

VfL Bochum (draw refunded)

29%

Rot-Weiß Essen (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

VfL Bochum at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Rot-Weiß Essen away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

VfL Bochum attack 1.80 + Rot-Weiß Essen defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.51

Rot-Weiß Essen attack 3.33 + VfL Bochum defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

VfL Bochum scores more

23%

level

19%

Rot-Weiß Essen scores more

57%

Rot-Weiß Essen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rot-Weiß Essen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

36'

64'

69'

VfL4-3-1-2

Rot-Weiß4-2-3-1

⚽

Meisel

⚽

Manager: P. Zeidler

VfL Bochum substitutes

1Horn34Grave2Gamboa41Loosli27Kwarteng8Losilla16Jahn18Bamba24Pannewig21Holtmann33Hofmann

Manager: C. Dabrowski

Rot-Weiß Essen substitutes

1Golz4Schultz19Voufack23Alonso29D'Haese39Swajkowski9Vonić11Safi21Berisha

Friendlies Clubs: VfL Bochum 3–1 Rot-Weiß Essen

VfL Bochum beat Rot-Weiß Essen 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on September 5, 2024.

Goals: Myron Boadu (22'), Ahmet Arslan (36'), Philipp Hofmann (64'), Mats Pannewig (69').

The match was played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bochum.

VfL Bochum vs Rot-Weiß Essen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: VfL Bochum 3–1 Rot-Weiß Essen