VfL Bochum 1–0 Antwerp: Result & Stats

VfL Bochum

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Antwerp

7/11/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

VfL Bochum34%

×Draw26%

Antwerp40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL BochumExpected goals in this matchAntwerp

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.38

VfL Bochum

1.27

Antwerp

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

1.80

creates per match

1.25

1.50

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

VfL Bochum

1.80

Antwerp

1.25

allows per match

VfL Bochum

1.50

Antwerp

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfL Bochum+0.00on par

Antwerp+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Bochum ↓

Antwerp →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

VfL Bochum or draw

60%

VfL Bochum or Antwerp

74%

Draw or Antwerp

66%

Winning margin

VfL Bochum wins by 2+

15%

Antwerp wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

VfL Bochum 1+ goals

72%

VfL Bochum 2+ goals

36%

VfL Bochum 3+ goals

14%

Antwerp 1+ goals

75%

Antwerp 2+ goals

40%

Antwerp 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

VfL Bochum (draw refunded)

47%

Antwerp (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

VfL Bochum at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Antwerp away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

VfL Bochum attack 1.80 + Antwerp defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.27

Antwerp attack 1.25 + VfL Bochum defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

VfL Bochum scores more

34%

level

26%

Antwerp scores more

40%

Antwerp at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Antwerp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

VfL

Antwerp

Manager: Uwe Rosler

VfL Bochum substitutes

22Thiede38Rolleke4Karademir19Hanslik17Bamba26Drakas30KeumoMeyerIsbruch28Wagbe25TolbaAkaegbobiFischer

Manager: Faris Haroun

Antwerp substitutes

15ThoelenVerdonck70Schelfhout20HeldenAzizKeitaLuyckx79Vandeplas19Urinboev83Godelaine24Somers