VfL Bochum 3–2 1. FC Kaiserslautern: Result & Stats

VfL Bochum

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

1. FC Kaiserslautern

M. Pannewig 69'

C. Marshall 66'

P. Hofmann 9'

M. Ritter 50'

N. Bassette 30'

3/7/2026

2. Bundesliga · Round 25Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

VfL Bochum52%

×Draw23%

1. FC Kaiserslautern25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL BochumExpected goals in this match1. FC Kaiserslautern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.19

VfL Bochum

1.81

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.19

VfL Bochum creates 52% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

2.01

creates per match

1.10

1.28

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

VfL Bochum

2.01

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.10

allows per match

VfL Bochum

1.28

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.61

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

VfL Bochum-0.28scores less

1. FC Kaiserslautern-0.19scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Bochum ↓

1. FC Kaiserslautern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

VfL Bochum or draw

75%

VfL Bochum or 1. FC Kaiserslautern

77%

Draw or 1. FC Kaiserslautern

48%

Winning margin

VfL Bochum wins by 2+

29%

1. FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

VfL Bochum 1+ goals

84%

VfL Bochum 2+ goals

54%

VfL Bochum 3+ goals

27%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals

70%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals

33%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

VfL Bochum (draw refunded)

67%

1. FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Bochum at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

1. FC Kaiserslautern away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Bochum attack 2.01 + 1. FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.81

1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.10 + VfL Bochum defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

VfL Bochum scores more

52%

level

23%

1. FC Kaiserslautern scores more

25%

VfL Bochum at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "VfL Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

M. Pannewig

VfL Bochum · M

8.0

Match Events

9'

P. Hofmann↳ M. Wittek

30'

N. Bassette↳ P. Joly

43'

Francis Onyeka

46'

Mats Pannewig

50'

M. Ritter↳ K. Redondo

58'

K. Watjen← F. Alfa-Ruprecht

58'

61'

61'

62'

63'

M. Berisha← N. Bassette

63'

S. Asta← P. Joly

66'

C. Marshall↳ K. Miyoshi

69'

76'

77'

80'

83'

83'

85'

L. Morgalla← O. Olsen

85'

M. Rakneberg← M. Wittek

90+4'

Mergim Berisha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VfL1.

Overview

57%Possession43%

17Total Shots9

2.61Expected Goals (xG)1.78

5Corners6

13Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots9

9On Target2

4Off Target5

4Blocked2

12Inside Box9

5Outside Box0

Passing

57%Possession43%

488Total Passes364

397Accurate Passes269

81%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

-0.73Goals Prevented-0.73

Discipline

13Fouls11

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1

Match Recap: VfL Bochum vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern

VfL Bochum beat 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on March 7, 2026.

Goals: P. Hofmann (9'), N. Bassette (30'), M. Ritter (50'), C. Marshall (66'), M. Pannewig (69').

VfL Bochum controlled possession (57%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bochum.

VfL Bochum vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: VfL Bochum vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern