VfB Stuttgart 1–1 RB Leipzig: Result & Stats

VfB Stuttgart

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

RB Leipzig

N. Ahamada 31'

C. Nkunku 8'

8/7/2022

Bundesliga · Round 1Mercedes-Benz-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

VfB Stuttgart45%

×Draw24%

RB Leipzig31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfB StuttgartExpected goals in this matchRB Leipzig

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.35

VfB Stuttgart

1.69

RB Leipzig

1.35

VfB Stuttgart creates 25% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 30 away

1.87

creates per match

1.45

1.25

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

VfB Stuttgart

1.87

RB Leipzig

1.45

allows per match

VfB Stuttgart

1.25

RB Leipzig

1.50

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

VfB Stuttgart-0.20scores less

RB Leipzig-0.08on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfB Stuttgart ↓

RB Leipzig →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

VfB Stuttgart or draw

69%

VfB Stuttgart or RB Leipzig

76%

Draw or RB Leipzig

55%

Winning margin

VfB Stuttgart wins by 2+

24%

RB Leipzig wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

VfB Stuttgart 1+ goals

82%

VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals

50%

VfB Stuttgart 3+ goals

24%

RB Leipzig 1+ goals

74%

RB Leipzig 2+ goals

39%

RB Leipzig 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

VfB Stuttgart (draw refunded)

60%

RB Leipzig (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfB Stuttgart at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.25 · 21 matches

RB Leipzig away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfB Stuttgart attack 1.87 + RB Leipzig defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

RB Leipzig attack 1.45 + VfB Stuttgart defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

VfB Stuttgart scores more

45%

level

24%

RB Leipzig scores more

31%

VfB Stuttgart at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "VfB Stuttgart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

F. Müller

VfB Stuttgart · G

8.3

Match Events

8'

C. Nkunku↳ Dani Olmo

31'

N. Ahamada↳ S. Kalajdzic

59'

D. Szoboszlai← K. Kampl

63'

Silas Katompa Mvumpa

64'

D. Churlinov← S. Kalajdzic

76'

C. Mola← Tiago Tomás

77'

E. Millot← C. Führich

81'

M. Simakan← Hugo Novoa

85'

E. Forsberg← Dani Olmo

85'

J. Gvardiol← M. Halstenberg

85'

A. Sørloth← André Silva

86'

Alexander Sørloth

90+4'

Clinton Mola

90+1'

A. Karazor← N. Ahamada

90'

J. Perea← S. Katompa Mvumpa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VfBRB

Overview

32%Possession68%

11Total Shots28

1Corners9

14Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots28

2On Target9

6Off Target7

3Blocked12

4Inside Box15

7Outside Box13

Passing

32%Possession68%

281Total Passes578

198Accurate Passes483

70%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

8Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2

Bundesliga: VfB Stuttgart 1–1 RB Leipzig

VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig drew 1-1 in Bundesliga on August 7, 2022.

Goals: C. Nkunku (8'), N. Ahamada (31').

RB Leipzig controlled possession (68%) and registered 28 shots to 11.

The match was played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena in Stuttgart.

VfB Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig — Bundesliga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bundesliga: VfB Stuttgart 1–1 RB Leipzig