VfB Stuttgart 2–1 FC Augsburg: Result & Stats

VfB Stuttgart

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC Augsburg

W. Anton 90+1'

S. Guirassy 15'

F. Niederlechner 4'

10/29/2022

Bundesliga · Round 12Mercedes-Benz-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

VfB Stuttgart54%

×Draw22%

FC Augsburg24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfB StuttgartExpected goals in this matchFC Augsburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.22

VfB Stuttgart

1.92

FC Augsburg

1.22

VfB Stuttgart creates 57% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 44 away

1.88

creates per match

1.17

1.27

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

VfB Stuttgart

1.88

FC Augsburg

1.17

allows per match

VfB Stuttgart

1.27

FC Augsburg

1.96

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

VfB Stuttgart-0.15scores less

FC Augsburg+0.03on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfB Stuttgart ↓

FC Augsburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

VfB Stuttgart or draw

76%

VfB Stuttgart or FC Augsburg

78%

Draw or FC Augsburg

46%

Winning margin

VfB Stuttgart wins by 2+

31%

FC Augsburg wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

VfB Stuttgart 1+ goals

85%

VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals

57%

VfB Stuttgart 3+ goals

30%

FC Augsburg 1+ goals

70%

FC Augsburg 2+ goals

34%

FC Augsburg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

VfB Stuttgart (draw refunded)

69%

FC Augsburg (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfB Stuttgart at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

FC Augsburg away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.96 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfB Stuttgart attack 1.88 + FC Augsburg defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.92

FC Augsburg attack 1.17 + VfB Stuttgart defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

VfB Stuttgart scores more

54%

level

22%

FC Augsburg scores more

24%

VfB Stuttgart at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "VfB Stuttgart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

B. Sosa

VfB Stuttgart · D

8.5

Match Events

4'

F. Niederlechner↳ F. Jensen

13'

Carlos Gruezo

15'

S. Guirassy↳ B. Sosa

25'

L. Petkov← R. Vargas

66'

Tiago Tomás← S. Katompa Mvumpa

76'

L. Egloff← C. Führich

78'

Elvis Rexhbeçaj

79'

F. Uduokhai← M. Pedersen

90+5'

Luca Pfeiffer

90+5'

A. Karazor← L. Pfeiffer

90+5'

P. Stenzel← W. Anton

90+3'

D. Caligiuri← L. Petkov

90+3'

A. Maier← C. Gruezo

90+1'

W. Anton↳ Tiago Tomás

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VfBFC

Overview

63%Possession37%

29Total Shots11

10Corners3

7Fouls12

Shots

29Total Shots11

8On Target4

12Off Target6

9Blocked1

19Inside Box7

10Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

460Total Passes279

355Accurate Passes171

77%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2