VfB Stuttgart 2–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern

VfB Stuttgart

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

1. FC Kaiserslautern

C. Führich 75'

N. Woltemade 14'

B. Tomiak 43' (pen)

10/29/2024

DFB Pokal · 2nd RoundMHPArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

VfB Stuttgart35%

×Draw23%

1. FC Kaiserslautern43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfB StuttgartExpected goals in this match1. FC Kaiserslautern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.80

VfB Stuttgart

1.61

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.80

1. FC Kaiserslautern creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

2.78

0.82

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

VfB Stuttgart

2.00

1. FC Kaiserslautern

2.78

allows per match

VfB Stuttgart

0.82

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfB Stuttgart+0.00on par

1. FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfB Stuttgart ↓

1. FC Kaiserslautern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

VfB Stuttgart or draw

57%

VfB Stuttgart or 1. FC Kaiserslautern

77%

Draw or 1. FC Kaiserslautern

65%

Winning margin

VfB Stuttgart wins by 2+

17%

1. FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

VfB Stuttgart 1+ goals

80%

VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals

48%

VfB Stuttgart 3+ goals

22%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals

83%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals

54%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

VfB Stuttgart (draw refunded)

45%

1. FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfB Stuttgart at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

1. FC Kaiserslautern away — creates 2.78, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfB Stuttgart attack 2.00 + 1. FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 2.78 + VfB Stuttgart defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

VfB Stuttgart scores more

35%

level

23%

1. FC Kaiserslautern scores more

43%

1. FC Kaiserslautern at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "1. FC Kaiserslautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

C. Führich

VfB Stuttgart · M

7.9

Match Events

14'

N. Woltemade

35'

Chris Führich

43'

B. TomiakPenalty

59'

D. Undav← N. Woltemade

59'

A. Stiller← F. Krätzig

59'

59'

62'

75'

77'

77'

J. Leweling← C. Führich

79'

T. Raschl← M. Ritter

79'

Leon Robinson← L. Sirch

80'

Tobias Raschl

85'

R. Tachie← D. Yokota

86'

Erik Wekesser

86'

J. Vagnoman← P. Stenzel

90+4'

Enzo Millot

90+3'

Daniel Hanslik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VfB1.

Overview

69%Possession31%

17Total Shots7

4Corners4

11Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots7

7On Target1

8Off Target6

2Blocked0

12Inside Box6

5Outside Box1

Passing

69%Possession31%

674Total Passes297

603Accurate Passes211

89%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides3