Vfb Marburg 4–3 Dietkirchen: Result & Stats

Vfb Marburg

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Dietkirchen

R. Traut 86'

G. Appel Prestes Da Silva 70'

M. Arifi 41'

M. Pape 13'

R. Lahl 67', 64'

R. Bocher 61'

8/26/2023

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 5Stadion an der Gisselberger Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vfb Marburg56%

×Draw21%

Dietkirchen23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vfb MarburgExpected goals in this matchDietkirchen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.31

Vfb Marburg

2.13

Dietkirchen

1.31

Vfb Marburg creates 63% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 57 away

1.38

creates per match

1.14

1.48

allows per match

2.89

creates per match

Vfb Marburg

1.38

Dietkirchen

1.14

allows per match

Vfb Marburg

1.48

Dietkirchen

2.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vfb Marburg+0.00on par

Dietkirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vfb Marburg ↓

Dietkirchen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Vfb Marburg or draw

77%

Vfb Marburg or Dietkirchen

79%

Draw or Dietkirchen

44%

Winning margin

Vfb Marburg wins by 2+

34%

Dietkirchen wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vfb Marburg 1+ goals

88%

Vfb Marburg 2+ goals

63%

Vfb Marburg 3+ goals

35%

Dietkirchen 1+ goals

73%

Dietkirchen 2+ goals

38%

Dietkirchen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vfb Marburg (draw refunded)

71%

Dietkirchen (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vfb Marburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

Dietkirchen away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.89 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vfb Marburg attack 1.38 + Dietkirchen defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.13

Dietkirchen attack 1.14 + Vfb Marburg defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vfb Marburg scores more

56%

level

21%

Dietkirchen scores more

23%

Vfb Marburg at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vfb Marburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

M. Pape

41'

M. Arifi

61'

R. Bocher

64'

R. Lahl

67'

R. Lahl

70'

G. Appel Prestes Da Silva

86'

R. Traut

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff