Vevey Sports 3–0 Köniz: Result & Stats

Vevey Sports

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Köniz

9/12/2020

Schweizer Cup · 2nd RoundStade de Copet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vevey Sports21%

×Draw19%

Köniz61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vevey SportsExpected goals in this matchKöniz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

2.50

Vevey Sports

1.42

Köniz

2.50

Köniz creates 76% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

2.33

2.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Vevey Sports

1.50

Köniz

2.33

allows per match

Vevey Sports

2.67

Köniz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vevey Sports+0.00on par

Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vevey Sports ↓

Köniz →

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–45%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Vevey Sports or draw

39%

Vevey Sports or Köniz

81%

Draw or Köniz

79%

Winning margin

Vevey Sports wins by 2+

Köniz wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Vevey Sports 1+ goals

76%

Vevey Sports 2+ goals

41%

Vevey Sports 3+ goals

17%

Köniz 1+ goals

92%

Köniz 2+ goals

71%

Köniz 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Vevey Sports (draw refunded)

26%

Köniz (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vevey Sports at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Köniz away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vevey Sports attack 1.50 + Köniz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Köniz attack 2.33 + Vevey Sports defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Vevey Sports scores more

21%

level

19%

Köniz scores more

61%

Köniz at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Köniz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff