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Vevey Sports vs Chênois — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Vevey Sports
Vevey Sports
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chênois
Chênois
4/1/20231. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Stade de Copet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Vevey Sports48%
×Draw23%
Chênois29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vevey Sports
1.78
Chênois
1.34

Vevey Sports creates 33% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 86 away

creates per match

Vevey Sports
1.96
Chênois
1.55

allows per match

Vevey Sports
1.14
Chênois
1.60

finishing

Vevey Sports+0.00on par
Chênois+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vevey Sports ↓

Chênois →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Vevey Sports or draw
71%
Vevey Sports or Chênois
77%
Draw or Chênois
52%

Winning margin

Vevey Sports wins by 2+
26%
Chênois wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vevey Sports 1+ goals
83%
Vevey Sports 2+ goals
53%
Vevey Sports 3+ goals
26%
Chênois 1+ goals
74%
Chênois 2+ goals
39%
Chênois 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vevey Sports (draw refunded)
62%
Chênois (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vevey Sports at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.14 · 57 matches

Chênois away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vevey Sports attack 1.96 + Chênois defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.78

Chênois attack 1.55 + Vevey Sports defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vevey Sports scores more
48%
level
23%
Chênois scores more
29%

Vevey Sports at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vevey Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Vevey Sports 1–0 Chênois

Vevey Sports beat Chênois 1-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Copet in Vevey.