Vevey Sports 2–4 BSC Young Boys: Result & Stats

Vevey Sports

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

BSC Young Boys

9/14/2024

Schweizer Cup · 2nd RoundStade de Copet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vevey Sports12%

×Draw14%

BSC Young Boys74%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vevey SportsExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

3.22

Vevey Sports

1.27

BSC Young Boys

3.22

BSC Young Boys creates 154% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 22 away

1.50

creates per match

3.77

2.67

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Vevey Sports

1.50

BSC Young Boys

3.77

allows per match

Vevey Sports

2.67

BSC Young Boys

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vevey Sports+0.00on par

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vevey Sports ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–37%

0–45%

1–01%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Vevey Sports or draw

26%

Vevey Sports or BSC Young Boys

86%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

88%

Winning margin

Vevey Sports wins by 2+

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

55%

Team goals

Vevey Sports 1+ goals

72%

Vevey Sports 2+ goals

36%

Vevey Sports 3+ goals

14%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

96%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

82%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

61%

Draw no bet

Vevey Sports (draw refunded)

14%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vevey Sports at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 3.77, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vevey Sports attack 1.50 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

BSC Young Boys attack 3.77 + Vevey Sports defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 74%?"

Vevey Sports scores more

12%

level

14%

BSC Young Boys scores more

74%

BSC Young Boys at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff