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Veszprém vs Zalaegerszegi TE II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Veszprém
Veszprém
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Zalaegerszegi TE II
Zalaegerszegi TE II
2/19/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 22Ajkai Városi Sportcentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Veszprém60%
×Draw23%
Zalaegerszegi TE II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veszprém
1.83
Zalaegerszegi TE II
0.86

Veszprém creates 113% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 57 away

creates per match

Veszprém
1.90
Zalaegerszegi TE II
1.11

allows per match

Veszprém
0.61
Zalaegerszegi TE II
1.77

finishing

Veszprém+0.00on par
Zalaegerszegi TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veszprém ↓

Zalaegerszegi TE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Veszprém or draw
83%
Veszprém or Zalaegerszegi TE II
77%
Draw or Zalaegerszegi TE II
40%

Winning margin

Veszprém wins by 2+
35%
Zalaegerszegi TE II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Veszprém 1+ goals
84%
Veszprém 2+ goals
54%
Veszprém 3+ goals
28%
Zalaegerszegi TE II 1+ goals
58%
Zalaegerszegi TE II 2+ goals
21%
Zalaegerszegi TE II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Veszprém (draw refunded)
78%
Zalaegerszegi TE II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veszprém at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.61 · 67 matches

Zalaegerszegi TE II away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.77 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veszprém attack 1.90 + Zalaegerszegi TE II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.83

Zalaegerszegi TE II attack 1.11 + Veszprém defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Veszprém scores more
60%
level
23%
Zalaegerszegi TE II scores more
17%

Veszprém at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Veszprém will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veszprém vs Zalaegerszegi TE II

Veszprém beat Zalaegerszegi TE II 3-0 in NB III - Southwest on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Ajkai Városi Sportcentrum in Ajka.