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Veszprém vs Hévíz — NB III - Southwest 2019

Veszprém
Veszprém
FT
4 – 1
Hévíz
Hévíz
11/10/2019NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 14Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Veszprém63%
×Draw22%
Hévíz15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veszprém
1.89
Hévíz
0.80

Veszprém creates 136% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 8 away

creates per match

Veszprém
1.90
Hévíz
1.00

allows per match

Veszprém
0.61
Hévíz
1.88

finishing

Veszprém+0.00on par
Hévíz+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veszprém ↓

Hévíz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Veszprém or draw
85%
Veszprém or Hévíz
78%
Draw or Hévíz
37%

Winning margin

Veszprém wins by 2+
38%
Hévíz wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Veszprém 1+ goals
85%
Veszprém 2+ goals
56%
Veszprém 3+ goals
29%
Hévíz 1+ goals
55%
Hévíz 2+ goals
19%
Hévíz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Veszprém (draw refunded)
80%
Hévíz (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veszprém at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.61 · 67 matches

Hévíz away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veszprém attack 1.90 + Hévíz defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.89

Hévíz attack 1.00 + Veszprém defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Veszprém scores more
63%
level
22%
Hévíz scores more
15%

Veszprém at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Veszprém will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veszprém vs Hévíz

Veszprém beat Hévíz 4-1 in NB III - Southwest on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Városi Stadion in Veszprém.