Veszprém 1–0 Gyori ETO II: Result & Stats

Veszprém

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gyori ETO II

3/29/2026

NB III - Northwest · Northwest - 22Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Veszprém46%

×Draw24%

Gyori ETO II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VeszprémExpected goals in this matchGyori ETO II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.32

Veszprém

1.70

Gyori ETO II

1.32

Veszprém creates 29% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

1.53

creates per match

1.60

1.04

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Veszprém

1.53

Gyori ETO II

1.60

allows per match

Veszprém

1.04

Gyori ETO II

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veszprém+0.00on par

Gyori ETO II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veszprém ↓

Gyori ETO II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Veszprém or draw

70%

Veszprém or Gyori ETO II

76%

Draw or Gyori ETO II

54%

Winning margin

Veszprém wins by 2+

24%

Gyori ETO II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Veszprém 1+ goals

82%

Veszprém 2+ goals

51%

Veszprém 3+ goals

24%

Gyori ETO II 1+ goals

73%

Gyori ETO II 2+ goals

38%

Gyori ETO II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Veszprém (draw refunded)

61%

Gyori ETO II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veszprém at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Gyori ETO II away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.87 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veszprém attack 1.53 + Gyori ETO II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.70

Gyori ETO II attack 1.60 + Veszprém defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Veszprém scores more

46%

level

24%

Gyori ETO II scores more

30%

Veszprém at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Veszprém will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff