Veszprém 7–1 Gyirmót II: Result & Stats

Veszprém

FT

7 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Gyirmót II

9/24/2023

NB III - Northwest · Northwest - 8Perutz-stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Veszprém57%

×Draw22%

Gyirmót II21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VeszprémExpected goals in this matchGyirmót II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.12

Veszprém

1.96

Gyirmót II

1.12

Veszprém creates 75% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

1.53

creates per match

1.20

1.04

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Veszprém

1.53

Gyirmót II

1.20

allows per match

Veszprém

1.04

Gyirmót II

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veszprém+0.00on par

Gyirmót II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veszprém ↓

Gyirmót II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Veszprém or draw

79%

Veszprém or Gyirmót II

78%

Draw or Gyirmót II

43%

Winning margin

Veszprém wins by 2+

33%

Gyirmót II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Veszprém 1+ goals

86%

Veszprém 2+ goals

58%

Veszprém 3+ goals

31%

Gyirmót II 1+ goals

67%

Gyirmót II 2+ goals

31%

Gyirmót II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Veszprém (draw refunded)

73%

Gyirmót II (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veszprém at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Gyirmót II away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veszprém attack 1.53 + Gyirmót II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.96

Gyirmót II attack 1.20 + Veszprém defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Veszprém scores more

57%

level

22%

Gyirmót II scores more

21%

Veszprém at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Veszprém will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff