Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Veszprém vs Csornai SE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Veszprém
Veszprém
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Csornai SE
Csornai SE
3/5/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 24Ajkai Városi Sportcentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Veszprém70%
×Draw18%
Csornai SE12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veszprém
2.24
Csornai SE
0.80

Veszprém creates 180% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 19 away

creates per match

Veszprém
1.90
Csornai SE
1.00

allows per match

Veszprém
0.61
Csornai SE
2.58

finishing

Veszprém+0.00on par
Csornai SE+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veszprém ↓

Csornai SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Veszprém or draw
88%
Veszprém or Csornai SE
82%
Draw or Csornai SE
30%

Winning margin

Veszprém wins by 2+
46%
Csornai SE wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Veszprém 1+ goals
89%
Veszprém 2+ goals
65%
Veszprém 3+ goals
38%
Csornai SE 1+ goals
55%
Csornai SE 2+ goals
19%
Csornai SE 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Veszprém (draw refunded)
85%
Csornai SE (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veszprém at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.61 · 67 matches

Csornai SE away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veszprém attack 1.90 + Csornai SE defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.24

Csornai SE attack 1.00 + Veszprém defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Veszprém scores more
70%
level
18%
Csornai SE scores more
12%

Veszprém at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Veszprém will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veszprém vs Csornai SE

Veszprém beat Csornai SE 4-0 in NB III - Southwest on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Ajkai Városi Sportcentrum in Ajka.