Vestri 1–1 Úlfarnir: Result & Stats | Cup

Vestri

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Úlfarnir

4/28/2019

Cup · 16th FinalsOlísvöllurinn (Hnífsdalur, Ísafjarðabær)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Vestri56%

×Draw20%

Úlfarnir24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VestriExpected goals in this matchÚlfarnir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.45

Vestri

2.30

Úlfarnir

1.45

Vestri creates 59% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

1.60

creates per match

2.00

0.90

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Vestri

1.60

Úlfarnir

2.00

allows per match

Vestri

0.90

Úlfarnir

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vestri+0.00on par

Úlfarnir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vestri ↓

Úlfarnir →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Vestri or draw

76%

Vestri or Úlfarnir

80%

Draw or Úlfarnir

44%

Winning margin

Vestri wins by 2+

35%

Úlfarnir wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vestri 1+ goals

90%

Vestri 2+ goals

67%

Vestri 3+ goals

40%

Úlfarnir 1+ goals

77%

Úlfarnir 2+ goals

42%

Úlfarnir 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Vestri (draw refunded)

70%

Úlfarnir (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vestri at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Úlfarnir away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vestri attack 1.60 + Úlfarnir defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Úlfarnir attack 2.00 + Vestri defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vestri scores more

56%

level

20%

Úlfarnir scores more

24%

Vestri at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vestri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff