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Vestri vs Tindastóll — 2. Deild 2018

Vestri
Vestri
FT
7 – 0
Tindastóll
Tindastóll
9/21/20192. Deild2. Deild · Round 22Olísvöllurinn (Hnífsdalur, Ísafjarðabær)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Vestri84%
×Draw11%
Tindastóll5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vestri
3.02
Tindastóll
0.64

Vestri creates 372% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Vestri
2.45
Tindastóll
0.73

allows per match

Vestri
0.55
Tindastóll
3.59

finishing

Vestri+0.00on par
Tindastóll+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vestri ↓

Tindastóll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vestri or draw
95%
Vestri or Tindastóll
89%
Draw or Tindastóll
16%

Winning margin

Vestri wins by 2+
65%
Tindastóll wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Vestri 1+ goals
95%
Vestri 2+ goals
80%
Vestri 3+ goals
57%
Tindastóll 1+ goals
47%
Tindastóll 2+ goals
14%
Tindastóll 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vestri (draw refunded)
94%
Tindastóll (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vestri at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.55 · 22 matches

Tindastóll away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vestri attack 2.45 + Tindastóll defence 3.59 → ÷2 → 3.02

Tindastóll attack 0.73 + Vestri defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Vestri scores more
84%
level
11%
Tindastóll scores more
5%

Vestri at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Vestri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vestri vs Tindastóll

Vestri beat Tindastóll 7-0 in 2. Deild on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Olísvöllurinn (Hnífsdalur, Ísafjarðabær).