Vestri 3–1 Stjarnan: Result & Stats | Úrvalsdeild

Vestri

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stjarnan

D. Jonsson 89', 74'

G. Hauksson 49'

G. Nokkvason 6'

5/24/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 8Kerecis Stadium - artificial grass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vestri28%

×Draw24%

Stjarnan48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VestriExpected goals in this matchStjarnan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.69

Vestri

1.25

Stjarnan

1.69

Stjarnan creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 22 away

0.94

creates per match

1.68

1.69

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Vestri

0.94

Stjarnan

1.68

allows per match

Vestri

1.69

Stjarnan

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vestri+0.00on par

Stjarnan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vestri ↓

Stjarnan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Vestri or draw

52%

Vestri or Stjarnan

76%

Draw or Stjarnan

72%

Winning margin

Vestri wins by 2+

12%

Stjarnan wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Vestri 1+ goals

71%

Vestri 2+ goals

36%

Vestri 3+ goals

13%

Stjarnan 1+ goals

82%

Stjarnan 2+ goals

50%

Stjarnan 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Vestri (draw refunded)

37%

Stjarnan (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vestri at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Stjarnan away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vestri attack 0.94 + Stjarnan defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.25

Stjarnan attack 1.68 + Vestri defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vestri scores more

28%

level

24%

Stjarnan scores more

48%

Stjarnan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stjarnan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

18'

28'

39'

44'

46'

49'

G. Hauksson↳ D. Montiel

60'

D. Matthiasson← S. Fridjonsson

60'

J. Gunnarsson← K. Kjartansson

74'

S. Fall← V. Tufegdzic

74'

S. Songani← G. Hauksson

74'

D. Jonsson

83'

A. Hauksson← G. Nokkvason

83'

J. H. Barkarson← A. Bjarnason

89'

A. Birgisson← S. Jonsson

89'

D. Jonsson↳ S. Songani

90+4'

G. Kristjansson

90'

E. Gardarsson← T. Phete

Vestri

Stjarnan

12

Olafsson

5

Kristjans

24

▼

Jonsson

6

Ingimarss

32

Orvarsson

10

▼

Fridjonss

30

▼

Kjartanss

18

⚽

▼

Nokkvason

7

Eggertsso

99

▼

Bjarnason

23

Waren

12

Smit

6

⚽

▼

Hauksson

3

Kralj

40

Kjeldsen

5

▼

28

32

4

7

▼

Tufegdzic

10

A

Montiel

8

⚽2

Jonsson

Manager: Davíð Smári Lamude

74'▲S. Fall←▼V. Tufegdzic

74'▲S. Songani←▼G. Hauksson

90'▲E. Gardarsson←▼T. Phete

Vestri substitutes

15Svavarsson19Duah77Fall23Songani22Gardarsson17Einarsson1Schubert

Manager: Þórarinn Ingi Valdimarsson

60'▲D. Matthiasson←▼S. Fridjonsson

60'▲J. Gunnarsson←▼K. Kjartansson

83'▲A. Hauksson←▼G. Nokkvason

83'▲J. H. Barkarson←▼A. Bjarnason

89'▲A. Birgisson←▼S. Jonsson

Stjarnan substitutes

41Gudjonsson19Matthiasson29Hauksson11Birgisson8Gunnarsson14Barkarson1Birnuson37Brink43Gislason

Úrvalsdeild: Vestri 3–1 Stjarnan

Vestri beat Stjarnan 3-1 in Úrvalsdeild on May 24, 2025.

Goals: G. Nokkvason (6'), G. Hauksson (49'), D. Jonsson (74', 89').

The match was played at Kerecis Stadium - artificial grass in Hnífsdalur, Ísafjarðabær.

Vestri vs Stjarnan — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Úrvalsdeild: Vestri 3–1 Stjarnan