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Vestri vs Kórdrengir — 1. Deild 2018

Vestri
Vestri
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Kórdrengir
Kórdrengir
9/24/20211. Deild1. Deild · Round 22Olísvöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Vestri41%
×Draw23%
Kórdrengir36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vestri
1.75
Kórdrengir
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 22 away

creates per match

Vestri
2.04
Kórdrengir
1.59

allows per match

Vestri
1.65
Kórdrengir
1.45

finishing

Vestri+0.00on par
Kórdrengir+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vestri ↓

Kórdrengir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Vestri or draw
64%
Vestri or Kórdrengir
77%
Draw or Kórdrengir
59%

Winning margin

Vestri wins by 2+
22%
Kórdrengir wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vestri 1+ goals
83%
Vestri 2+ goals
52%
Vestri 3+ goals
25%
Kórdrengir 1+ goals
80%
Kórdrengir 2+ goals
48%
Kórdrengir 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Vestri (draw refunded)
53%
Kórdrengir (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vestri at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

Kórdrengir away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vestri attack 2.04 + Kórdrengir defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.75

Kórdrengir attack 1.59 + Vestri defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vestri scores more
41%
level
23%
Kórdrengir scores more
36%

Vestri at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vestri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vestri vs Kórdrengir

Vestri and Kórdrengir drew 3-3 in 1. Deild on September 24, 2021.

The match was played at Olísvöllurinn in Hnífsdalur, Ísafjarðabær.