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Vestri vs KFG — 2. Deild 2026

Vestri
Vestri
FT
5 – 0
KFG
KFG
A. Spear 78'
V. Juliusson 71'
I. Freitas 48'
P. Bjarnason 25'
Z. Plazonic 5'
9/8/20192. Deild2. Deild · Round 20Olísvöllurinn (Hnífsdalur, Ísafjarðabær)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Vestri70%
×Draw17%
KFG13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vestri
2.41
KFG
0.91

Vestri creates 165% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 50 away

creates per match

Vestri
2.35
KFG
1.24

allows per match

Vestri
0.57
KFG
2.46

finishing

Vestri+0.00on par
KFG+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vestri ↓

KFG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vestri or draw
87%
Vestri or KFG
83%
Draw or KFG
30%

Winning margin

Vestri wins by 2+
47%
KFG wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vestri 1+ goals
91%
Vestri 2+ goals
69%
Vestri 3+ goals
43%
KFG 1+ goals
60%
KFG 2+ goals
23%
KFG 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vestri (draw refunded)
85%
KFG (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vestri at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.57 · 23 matches

KFG away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.46 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vestri attack 2.35 + KFG defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.41

KFG attack 1.24 + Vestri defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Vestri scores more
70%
level
17%
KFG scores more
13%

Vestri at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Vestri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Z. Plazonic
25'
P. Bjarnason
48'
I. Freitas
71'
V. Juliusson
78'
A. Spear
85'
T. Almarsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vestri 5 – 0 KFG

Vestri beat KFG 5-0 in 2. Deild on September 8, 2019.

Goals: Z. Plazonic (5'), P. Bjarnason (25'), I. Freitas (48'), V. Juliusson (71'), A. Spear (78').

The match was played at Olísvöllurinn (Hnífsdalur, Ísafjarðabær).