Vestri 5–0 Höttur: Result & Stats | 2. Deild

Vestri

FT

5 – 0

Höttur

5/12/2018

2. Deild · Round 2Olísvöllurinn (Hnífsdalur, Ísafjarðabær)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Vestri75%

×Draw15%

Höttur10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VestriExpected goals in this matchHöttur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

0.86

Vestri

2.63

Höttur

0.86

Vestri creates 206% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

2.45

creates per match

1.18

0.55

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Vestri

2.45

Höttur

1.18

allows per match

Vestri

0.55

Höttur

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vestri+0.00on par

Höttur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vestri ↓

Höttur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Vestri or draw

90%

Vestri or Höttur

85%

Draw or Höttur

25%

Winning margin

Vestri wins by 2+

53%

Höttur wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Vestri 1+ goals

93%

Vestri 2+ goals

73%

Vestri 3+ goals

48%

Höttur 1+ goals

58%

Höttur 2+ goals

21%

Höttur 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Vestri (draw refunded)

88%

Höttur (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vestri at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.55 · 22 matches

Höttur away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vestri attack 2.45 + Höttur defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.63

Höttur attack 1.18 + Vestri defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Vestri scores more

75%

level

15%

Höttur scores more

10%

Vestri at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Vestri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff