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Vestri vs Fjardabyggd — 2. Deild 2018

Vestri
Vestri
FT
1 – 0
Fjardabyggd
Fjardabyggd
6/23/20182. Deild2. Deild · Round 8Olísvöllurinn (Hnífsdalur, Ísafjarðabær)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Vestri72%
×Draw17%
Fjardabyggd11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vestri
2.32
Fjardabyggd
0.78

Vestri creates 197% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 43 away

creates per match

Vestri
2.45
Fjardabyggd
1.00

allows per match

Vestri
0.55
Fjardabyggd
2.19

finishing

Vestri+0.00on par
Fjardabyggd+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vestri ↓

Fjardabyggd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vestri or draw
89%
Vestri or Fjardabyggd
83%
Draw or Fjardabyggd
28%

Winning margin

Vestri wins by 2+
48%
Fjardabyggd wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Vestri 1+ goals
90%
Vestri 2+ goals
67%
Vestri 3+ goals
40%
Fjardabyggd 1+ goals
54%
Fjardabyggd 2+ goals
18%
Fjardabyggd 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vestri (draw refunded)
87%
Fjardabyggd (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vestri at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.55 · 22 matches

Fjardabyggd away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vestri attack 2.45 + Fjardabyggd defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.32

Fjardabyggd attack 1.00 + Vestri defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Vestri scores more
72%
level
17%
Fjardabyggd scores more
11%

Vestri at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Vestri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vestri vs Fjardabyggd

Vestri beat Fjardabyggd 1-0 in 2. Deild on June 23, 2018.

The match was played at Olísvöllurinn (Hnífsdalur, Ísafjarðabær).