Versailles 0–1 Concarneau: Result & Stats

Versailles

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Concarneau

F. El Khoumisti 77'

2/27/2023

League #63 · Round 22Stade Jean Bouin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Versailles40%

×Draw28%

Concarneau32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VersaillesExpected goals in this matchConcarneau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.07

Versailles

1.25

Concarneau

1.07

Versailles creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 20 away

1.40

creates per match

0.95

1.20

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Versailles

1.40

Concarneau

0.95

allows per match

Versailles

1.20

Concarneau

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Versailles+0.00on par

Concarneau+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Versailles ↓

Concarneau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Versailles or draw

68%

Versailles or Concarneau

72%

Draw or Concarneau

60%

Winning margin

Versailles wins by 2+

18%

Concarneau wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Versailles 1+ goals

71%

Versailles 2+ goals

36%

Versailles 3+ goals

13%

Concarneau 1+ goals

66%

Concarneau 2+ goals

29%

Concarneau 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Versailles (draw refunded)

56%

Concarneau (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Versailles at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Concarneau away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Versailles attack 1.40 + Concarneau defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Concarneau attack 0.95 + Versailles defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Versailles scores more

40%

level

28%

Concarneau scores more

32%

Versailles at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Versailles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

G. Akueson

46'

J. Leborgne← M. Prunier

46'

I. Diarrasouba← R. Alioui

46'

74'

77'

81'

87'

F. Mannai← A. Camblan

87'

T. Lebeau← T. Sinquin

90+1'

T. Lebeau

90+3'

G. Traore

Versailles

Concarneau

1

4

2

5

23

26

▼

Sinquin

10

Boutrah

14

Traoré

20

▼

Camblan

15

⚽

9

40

22

3

13

5

▼

Diouf

4

Lens

26

Lemoine

20

▼

Damour

18

Lefebvre

19

▼

Alioui

21

▼

Prunier

Manager: Y. Chibhi

46'▲J. Leborgne←▼M. Prunier

46'▲I. Diarrasouba←▼R. Alioui

46'▲F. Lapis←▼L. Damour

81'▲M. Dossevi←▼W. Diouf

Versailles substitutes

8Leborgne17Diarrasouba23Lapis14Dossevi16Yirango

Manager: S. Le Mignan

87'▲F. Mannai←▼A. Camblan

87'▲T. Lebeau←▼T. Sinquin

Concarneau substitutes

7Mannai8Lebeau16Maitre28Paro11Urie