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Tsarsko Selo vs Pirin Blagoevgrad — Second League 2018

Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad
8/5/2018Second LeagueSecond League · Round 2Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Tsarsko Selo57%
×Draw22%
Pirin Blagoevgrad21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsarsko Selo
1.90
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.05

Tsarsko Selo creates 81% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 76 away

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo
2.50
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.30

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo
0.80
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.30

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par
Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw
79%
Tsarsko Selo or Pirin Blagoevgrad
78%
Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad
43%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
33%
Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
85%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
56%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
29%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals
65%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals
28%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
73%
Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 2.50 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.90

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 1.30 + Tsarsko Selo defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more
57%
level
22%
Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more
21%

Tsarsko Selo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Tsarsko Selo 3–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad

Tsarsko Selo beat Pirin Blagoevgrad 3-0 in Second League on August 5, 2018.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia).