Pirin Blagoevgrad 2–1 Tsarsko Selo: Result & Stats

Pirin Blagoevgrad

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Tsarsko Selo

10/31/2021

First League · Round 13Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad41%

×Draw28%

Tsarsko Selo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pirin BlagoevgradExpected goals in this matchTsarsko Selo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.03

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.24

Tsarsko Selo

1.03

Pirin Blagoevgrad creates 20% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 48 away

1.13

creates per match

0.69

1.38

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.13

Tsarsko Selo

0.69

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1.38

Tsarsko Selo

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad+0.00on par

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad ↓

Tsarsko Selo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad or draw

69%

Pirin Blagoevgrad or Tsarsko Selo

72%

Draw or Tsarsko Selo

59%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad wins by 2+

18%

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1+ goals

71%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 2+ goals

35%

Pirin Blagoevgrad 3+ goals

13%

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals

64%

Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals

28%

Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad (draw refunded)

57%

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.35 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad attack 1.13 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Tsarsko Selo attack 0.69 + Pirin Blagoevgrad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad scores more

41%

level

28%

Tsarsko Selo scores more

31%

Pirin Blagoevgrad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pirin Blagoevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Pirin Blagoevgrad 2–1 Tsarsko Selo

Pirin Blagoevgrad beat Tsarsko Selo 2-1 in First League on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Blagoevgrad.

Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Tsarsko Selo — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

First League: Pirin Blagoevgrad 2–1 Tsarsko Selo