Tsarsko Selo 3–1 Botev Galabovo: Result & Stats

Tsarsko Selo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Botev Galabovo

11/3/2018

Second League · Round 13Gradski stadion (Nesebar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Tsarsko Selo66%

×Draw20%

Botev Galabovo13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tsarsko SeloExpected goals in this matchBotev Galabovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.77

Tsarsko Selo

2.02

Botev Galabovo

0.77

Tsarsko Selo creates 162% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 26 away

2.50

creates per match

0.73

0.80

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo

2.50

Botev Galabovo

0.73

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo

0.80

Botev Galabovo

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Botev Galabovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Botev Galabovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw

87%

Tsarsko Selo or Botev Galabovo

80%

Draw or Botev Galabovo

34%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+

41%

Botev Galabovo wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals

87%

Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals

60%

Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals

33%

Botev Galabovo 1+ goals

54%

Botev Galabovo 2+ goals

18%

Botev Galabovo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)

83%

Botev Galabovo (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Botev Galabovo away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 2.50 + Botev Galabovo defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.02

Botev Galabovo attack 0.73 + Tsarsko Selo defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more

66%

level

20%

Botev Galabovo scores more

13%

Tsarsko Selo at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff