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Verona U19 vs Venezia U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Verona U19
Verona U19
FT
2 – 3
Venezia U19
Venezia U19
2/6/2021Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 8Antistadio Guido Tavellin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Verona U1955%
×Draw19%
Venezia U1926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Verona U19
2.48
Venezia U19
1.66

Verona U19 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 85 away

creates per match

Verona U19
3.27
Venezia U19
1.58

allows per match

Verona U19
1.73
Venezia U19
1.68

finishing

Verona U19+0.00on par
Venezia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verona U19 ↓

Venezia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Verona U19 or draw
74%
Verona U19 or Venezia U19
81%
Draw or Venezia U19
45%

Winning margin

Verona U19 wins by 2+
35%
Venezia U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Verona U19 1+ goals
92%
Verona U19 2+ goals
70%
Verona U19 3+ goals
44%
Venezia U19 1+ goals
81%
Venezia U19 2+ goals
49%
Venezia U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Verona U19 (draw refunded)
68%
Venezia U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verona U19 at home — creates 3.27, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Venezia U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.68 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verona U19 attack 3.27 + Venezia U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.48

Venezia U19 attack 1.58 + Verona U19 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Verona U19 scores more
55%
level
19%
Venezia U19 scores more
26%

Verona U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Verona U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Verona U19 vs Venezia U19

Venezia U19 beat Verona U19 3-2 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Antistadio Guido Tavellin in Verona.