Verona U19 3–1 Udinese U19: Result & Stats

Verona U19

FT

3 – 1

Udinese U19

4/3/2021

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 16Antistadio Guido Tavellin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Verona U1955%

×Draw19%

Udinese U1926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Verona U19Expected goals in this matchUdinese U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.71

Verona U19

2.54

Udinese U19

1.71

Verona U19 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 54 away

3.27

creates per match

1.69

1.73

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Verona U19

3.27

Udinese U19

1.69

allows per match

Verona U19

1.73

Udinese U19

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Verona U19+0.00on par

Udinese U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verona U19 ↓

Udinese U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Verona U19 or draw

74%

Verona U19 or Udinese U19

81%

Draw or Udinese U19

45%

Winning margin

Verona U19 wins by 2+

35%

Udinese U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Verona U19 1+ goals

92%

Verona U19 2+ goals

72%

Verona U19 3+ goals

46%

Udinese U19 1+ goals

82%

Udinese U19 2+ goals

51%

Udinese U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Verona U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Udinese U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verona U19 at home — creates 3.27, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Udinese U19 away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.80 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verona U19 attack 3.27 + Udinese U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.54

Udinese U19 attack 1.69 + Verona U19 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Verona U19 scores more

55%

level

19%

Udinese U19 scores more

26%

Verona U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Verona U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff