Verona U19 7–1 Reggiana U19: Result & Stats

Verona U19

FT

7 – 1

Reggiana U19

5/29/2021

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 22Antistadio Guido Tavellin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Verona U1966%

×Draw17%

Reggiana U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Verona U19Expected goals in this matchReggiana U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.78

1.40

Verona U19

2.78

Reggiana U19

1.40

Verona U19 creates 99% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 86 away

3.27

creates per match

1.06

1.73

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Verona U19

3.27

Reggiana U19

1.06

allows per match

Verona U19

1.73

Reggiana U19

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Verona U19+0.00on par

Reggiana U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verona U19 ↓

Reggiana U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Verona U19 or draw

82%

Verona U19 or Reggiana U19

83%

Draw or Reggiana U19

34%

Winning margin

Verona U19 wins by 2+

45%

Reggiana U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Verona U19 1+ goals

94%

Verona U19 2+ goals

76%

Verona U19 3+ goals

51%

Reggiana U19 1+ goals

75%

Reggiana U19 2+ goals

41%

Reggiana U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Verona U19 (draw refunded)

79%

Reggiana U19 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verona U19 at home — creates 3.27, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Reggiana U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verona U19 attack 3.27 + Reggiana U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.78

Reggiana U19 attack 1.06 + Verona U19 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Verona U19 scores more

66%

level

17%

Reggiana U19 scores more

18%

Verona U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Verona U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff