Verona U19 0–1 Internazionale U19: Result & Stats

Verona U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Internazionale U19

3/8/2022

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 23Antistadio Guido Tavellin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Verona U1937%

×Draw24%

Internazionale U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Verona U19Expected goals in this matchInternazionale U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.52

Verona U19

1.47

Internazionale U19

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 66 away

1.82

creates per match

1.56

1.47

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Verona U19

1.82

Internazionale U19

1.56

allows per match

Verona U19

1.47

Internazionale U19

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Verona U19+0.00on par

Internazionale U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verona U19 ↓

Internazionale U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Verona U19 or draw

61%

Verona U19 or Internazionale U19

76%

Draw or Internazionale U19

63%

Winning margin

Verona U19 wins by 2+

17%

Internazionale U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Verona U19 1+ goals

77%

Verona U19 2+ goals

43%

Verona U19 3+ goals

18%

Internazionale U19 1+ goals

78%

Internazionale U19 2+ goals

45%

Internazionale U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Verona U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Internazionale U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verona U19 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

Internazionale U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.12 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verona U19 attack 1.82 + Internazionale U19 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.47

Internazionale U19 attack 1.56 + Verona U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Verona U19 scores more

37%

level

24%

Internazionale U19 scores more

39%

Internazionale U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Internazionale U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff