Verona U19 0–0 Frosinone U19: Result & Stats

Verona U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Frosinone U19

11/14/2022

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 12Sinergy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Verona U1951%

×Draw22%

Frosinone U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Verona U19Expected goals in this matchFrosinone U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.35

Verona U19

1.92

Frosinone U19

1.35

Verona U19 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.82

creates per match

1.24

1.47

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Verona U19

1.82

Frosinone U19

1.24

allows per match

Verona U19

1.47

Frosinone U19

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Verona U19+0.00on par

Frosinone U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verona U19 ↓

Frosinone U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Verona U19 or draw

73%

Verona U19 or Frosinone U19

78%

Draw or Frosinone U19

49%

Winning margin

Verona U19 wins by 2+

29%

Frosinone U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Verona U19 1+ goals

85%

Verona U19 2+ goals

57%

Verona U19 3+ goals

30%

Frosinone U19 1+ goals

74%

Frosinone U19 2+ goals

39%

Frosinone U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Verona U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Frosinone U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verona U19 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

Frosinone U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verona U19 attack 1.82 + Frosinone U19 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.92

Frosinone U19 attack 1.24 + Verona U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Verona U19 scores more

51%

level

22%

Frosinone U19 scores more

27%

Verona U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Verona U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff