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Vermont Green vs Lexington — US Open Cup 2018

Vermont Green
Vermont Green
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Lexington
Lexington
3/19/2024US Open CupUS Open Cup · 1st RoundVirtue Field at Archie Post Athletic Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vermont Green59%
×Draw20%
Lexington21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vermont Green
2.33
Lexington
1.33

Vermont Green creates 75% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Vermont Green
2.00
Lexington
1.00

allows per match

Vermont Green
1.67
Lexington
2.67

finishing

Vermont Green+0.00on par
Lexington+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vermont Green ↓

Lexington →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Vermont Green or draw
79%
Vermont Green or Lexington
80%
Draw or Lexington
41%

Winning margin

Vermont Green wins by 2+
38%
Lexington wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vermont Green 1+ goals
90%
Vermont Green 2+ goals
67%
Vermont Green 3+ goals
41%
Lexington 1+ goals
74%
Lexington 2+ goals
38%
Lexington 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vermont Green (draw refunded)
74%
Lexington (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vermont Green at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Lexington away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vermont Green attack 2.00 + Lexington defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Lexington attack 1.00 + Vermont Green defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vermont Green scores more
59%
level
20%
Lexington scores more
21%

Vermont Green at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Vermont Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

US Open Cup: Vermont Green 4–3 Lexington

Vermont Green beat Lexington 4-3 in US Open Cup on March 19, 2024.

The match was played at Virtue Field at Archie Post Athletic Complex in Burlington, Vermont.