Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Verl vs Norwich — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Verl
Verl
FT
0 – 3
Norwich
Norwich
8/24/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3SPORTCLUB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Verl13%
×Draw17%
Norwich69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Verl
0.95
Norwich
2.42

Norwich creates 155% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Verl
1.57
Norwich
2.83

allows per match

Verl
2.00
Norwich
0.33

finishing

Verl+0.00on par
Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verl ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Verl or draw
31%
Verl or Norwich
83%
Draw or Norwich
87%

Winning margin

Verl wins by 2+
4%
Norwich wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Verl 1+ goals
61%
Verl 2+ goals
25%
Verl 3+ goals
7%
Norwich 1+ goals
91%
Norwich 2+ goals
69%
Norwich 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Verl (draw refunded)
16%
Norwich (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verl at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Norwich away — creates 2.83, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verl attack 1.57 + Norwich defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.95

Norwich attack 2.83 + Verl defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Verl scores more
13%
level
17%
Norwich scores more
69%

Norwich at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Verl 0–3 Norwich

Norwich beat Verl 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 24, 2020.

The match was played at SPORTCLUB Arena in Verl.