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Verl U19 vs Magdeburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Verl U19
Verl U19
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Magdeburg U19
Magdeburg U19
5/24/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League B - 3Zum Furlbach Hauptplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Verl U1927%
×Draw19%
Magdeburg U1954%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Verl U19
1.69
Magdeburg U19
2.44

Magdeburg U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 59 away

creates per match

Verl U19
0.96
Magdeburg U19
2.08

allows per match

Verl U19
2.79
Magdeburg U19
2.42

finishing

Verl U19+0.00on par
Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verl U19 ↓

Magdeburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Verl U19 or draw
46%
Verl U19 or Magdeburg U19
81%
Draw or Magdeburg U19
73%

Winning margin

Verl U19 wins by 2+
13%
Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Verl U19 1+ goals
82%
Verl U19 2+ goals
50%
Verl U19 3+ goals
24%
Magdeburg U19 1+ goals
91%
Magdeburg U19 2+ goals
70%
Magdeburg U19 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Verl U19 (draw refunded)
33%
Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verl U19 at home — creates 0.96, concedes 2.79 · 24 matches

Magdeburg U19 away — creates 2.08, concedes 2.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verl U19 attack 0.96 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.69

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.08 + Verl U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Verl U19 scores more
27%
level
19%
Magdeburg U19 scores more
54%

Magdeburg U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Magdeburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Verl U19 vs Magdeburg U19

Magdeburg U19 beat Verl U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on May 24, 2023.

The match was played at Zum Furlbach Hauptplatz in Verl.