Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Verl U19 vs Bochum U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Verl U19
Verl U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Bochum U19
Bochum U19
5/11/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 26Zum Furlbach Hauptplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Verl U1918%
×Draw18%
Bochum U1964%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Verl U19
1.24
Bochum U19
2.46

Bochum U19 creates 98% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 67 away

creates per match

Verl U19
0.96
Bochum U19
2.13

allows per match

Verl U19
2.79
Bochum U19
1.52

finishing

Verl U19+0.00on par
Bochum U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verl U19 ↓

Bochum U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Verl U19 or draw
36%
Verl U19 or Bochum U19
82%
Draw or Bochum U19
82%

Winning margin

Verl U19 wins by 2+
7%
Bochum U19 wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Verl U19 1+ goals
71%
Verl U19 2+ goals
35%
Verl U19 3+ goals
13%
Bochum U19 1+ goals
91%
Bochum U19 2+ goals
70%
Bochum U19 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Verl U19 (draw refunded)
22%
Bochum U19 (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verl U19 at home — creates 0.96, concedes 2.79 · 24 matches

Bochum U19 away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.52 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verl U19 attack 0.96 + Bochum U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.24

Bochum U19 attack 2.13 + Verl U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Verl U19 scores more
18%
level
18%
Bochum U19 scores more
64%

Bochum U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Verl U19 vs Bochum U19

Bochum U19 beat Verl U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Zum Furlbach Hauptplatz in Verl.