Vereya Stara Zagora 1–5 Rodopa Smolyan

Vereya Stara Zagora

FT

1 – 5

Rodopa Smolyan

4/17/2021

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 27Trace Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vereya Stara Zagora20%

×Draw18%

Rodopa Smolyan62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vereya Stara ZagoraExpected goals in this matchRodopa Smolyan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

2.50

Vereya Stara Zagora

1.36

Rodopa Smolyan

2.50

Rodopa Smolyan creates 84% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 120 away

0.75

creates per match

1.14

3.86

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.75

Rodopa Smolyan

1.14

allows per match

Vereya Stara Zagora

3.86

Rodopa Smolyan

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vereya Stara Zagora ↓

Rodopa Smolyan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Vereya Stara Zagora or draw

38%

Vereya Stara Zagora or Rodopa Smolyan

82%

Draw or Rodopa Smolyan

80%

Winning margin

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+

8%

Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals

74%

Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals

39%

Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals

16%

Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals

92%

Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals

71%

Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)

24%

Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vereya Stara Zagora at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.86 · 36 matches

Rodopa Smolyan away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.97 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.75 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.36

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.14 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.86 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more

20%

level

18%

Rodopa Smolyan scores more

62%

Rodopa Smolyan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Rodopa Smolyan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff