Vereya Stara Zagora 3–4 Levski Sofia

Vereya Stara Zagora

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Levski Sofia

3/16/2019

First League · Round 26Trace Arena (Stara Zagora)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vereya Stara Zagora18%

×Draw25%

Levski Sofia57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vereya Stara ZagoraExpected goals in this matchLevski Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.61

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.78

Levski Sofia

1.61

Levski Sofia creates 106% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 138 away

0.63

creates per match

1.41

1.81

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.63

Levski Sofia

1.41

allows per match

Vereya Stara Zagora

1.81

Levski Sofia

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Levski Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vereya Stara Zagora ↓

Levski Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–115%

0–212%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vereya Stara Zagora or draw

43%

Vereya Stara Zagora or Levski Sofia

75%

Draw or Levski Sofia

82%

Winning margin

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+

5%

Levski Sofia wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals

54%

Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals

18%

Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals

4%

Levski Sofia 1+ goals

80%

Levski Sofia 2+ goals

48%

Levski Sofia 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)

24%

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vereya Stara Zagora at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Levski Sofia away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.93 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.63 + Levski Sofia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.78

Levski Sofia attack 1.41 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more

18%

level

25%

Levski Sofia scores more

57%

Levski Sofia at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff