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Vereya Stara Zagora vs Karnobat — Third League - Southeast 2018

Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
FT
1 – 2
Karnobat
Karnobat
10/3/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 9Trace Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vereya Stara Zagora28%
×Draw20%
Karnobat52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vereya Stara Zagora
1.67
Karnobat
2.33

Karnobat creates 40% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 118 away

creates per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
0.75
Karnobat
0.79

allows per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
3.86
Karnobat
2.58

finishing

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par
Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vereya Stara Zagora ↓

Karnobat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Vereya Stara Zagora or draw
48%
Vereya Stara Zagora or Karnobat
80%
Draw or Karnobat
72%

Winning margin

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
13%
Karnobat wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
81%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
50%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
23%
Karnobat 1+ goals
90%
Karnobat 2+ goals
67%
Karnobat 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
35%
Karnobat (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vereya Stara Zagora at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.86 · 36 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.75 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.67

Karnobat attack 0.79 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.86 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
28%
level
20%
Karnobat scores more
52%

Karnobat at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Karnobat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vereya Stara Zagora 1 – 2 Karnobat

Karnobat beat Vereya Stara Zagora 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Trace Arena in Stara Zagora.