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Vereya Stara Zagora vs Dunav Ruse — First League 2018

Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
9/23/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Trace Arena (Stara Zagora)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vereya Stara Zagora38%
×Draw25%
Dunav Ruse37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vereya Stara Zagora
1.41
Dunav Ruse
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 32 away

creates per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
0.63
Dunav Ruse
0.97

allows per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
1.81
Dunav Ruse
2.19

finishing

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par
Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vereya Stara Zagora ↓

Dunav Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vereya Stara Zagora or draw
63%
Vereya Stara Zagora or Dunav Ruse
75%
Draw or Dunav Ruse
62%

Winning margin

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
18%
Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
76%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
41%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
17%
Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
75%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
40%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
51%
Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vereya Stara Zagora at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.19 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.63 + Dunav Ruse defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.41

Dunav Ruse attack 0.97 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
38%
level
25%
Dunav Ruse scores more
37%

Vereya Stara Zagora at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vereya Stara Zagora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vereya Stara Zagora vs Dunav Ruse

Vereya Stara Zagora and Dunav Ruse drew 1-1 in First League on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Trace Arena (Stara Zagora).