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Vereya Stara Zagora vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas — Third League - Southeast 2018

Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
FT
0 – 2
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
4/7/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 25Trace Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vereya Stara Zagora9%
×Draw14%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vereya Stara Zagora
0.85
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
2.84

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas creates 234% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 99 away

creates per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
0.75
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.82

allows per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
3.86
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.95

finishing

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vereya Stara Zagora ↓

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–210%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Vereya Stara Zagora or draw
22%
Vereya Stara Zagora or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
86%
Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
91%

Winning margin

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
3%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
57%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
21%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
5%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals
94%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals
77%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
10%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vereya Stara Zagora at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.86 · 36 matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.95 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.75 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 1.82 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.86 → ÷2 → 2.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
9%
level
14%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more
78%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Vereya Stara Zagora 0–2 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas beat Vereya Stara Zagora 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Trace Arena in Stara Zagora.