Vereya Stara Zagora 4–3 Borislav 2009

Vereya Stara Zagora

FT

4 – 3

Borislav 2009

5/13/2023

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 35Trace Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vereya Stara Zagora26%

×Draw20%

Borislav 200954%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vereya Stara ZagoraExpected goals in this matchBorislav 2009

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

2.38

Vereya Stara Zagora

1.64

Borislav 2009

2.38

Borislav 2009 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 79 away

0.75

creates per match

0.91

3.86

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.75

Borislav 2009

0.91

allows per match

Vereya Stara Zagora

3.86

Borislav 2009

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vereya Stara Zagora ↓

Borislav 2009 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Vereya Stara Zagora or draw

46%

Vereya Stara Zagora or Borislav 2009

80%

Draw or Borislav 2009

74%

Winning margin

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+

12%

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals

81%

Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals

49%

Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals

23%

Borislav 2009 1+ goals

91%

Borislav 2009 2+ goals

68%

Borislav 2009 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)

33%

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vereya Stara Zagora at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.86 · 36 matches

Borislav 2009 away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.52 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.75 + Borislav 2009 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 1.64

Borislav 2009 attack 0.91 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.86 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more

26%

level

20%

Borislav 2009 scores more

54%

Borislav 2009 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Borislav 2009 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff