Vereya Stara Zagora 1–4 Atletik Kuklen

Vereya Stara Zagora

FT

1 – 4

Atletik Kuklen

3/13/2021

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 21Trace Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vereya Stara Zagora23%

×Draw19%

Atletik Kuklen58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vereya Stara ZagoraExpected goals in this matchAtletik Kuklen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

2.43

Vereya Stara Zagora

1.48

Atletik Kuklen

2.43

Atletik Kuklen creates 64% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 135 away

0.75

creates per match

1.00

3.86

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.75

Atletik Kuklen

1.00

allows per match

Vereya Stara Zagora

3.86

Atletik Kuklen

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vereya Stara Zagora ↓

Atletik Kuklen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Vereya Stara Zagora or draw

42%

Vereya Stara Zagora or Atletik Kuklen

81%

Draw or Atletik Kuklen

77%

Winning margin

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+

10%

Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals

77%

Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals

43%

Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals

19%

Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals

91%

Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals

69%

Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)

28%

Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vereya Stara Zagora at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.86 · 36 matches

Atletik Kuklen away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.21 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.75 + Atletik Kuklen defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.00 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.86 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more

23%

level

19%

Atletik Kuklen scores more

58%

Atletik Kuklen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Atletik Kuklen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff