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Veres Rivne vs Oleksandria — Premier League 2019

Veres Rivne
Veres Rivne
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Oleksandria
Oleksandria
11/24/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Veres Rivne41%
×Draw27%
Oleksandria31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veres Rivne
1.31
Oleksandria
1.11

Veres Rivne creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Veres Rivne
1.12
Oleksandria
0.90

allows per match

Veres Rivne
1.33
Oleksandria
1.51

finishing

Veres Rivne-0.72scores less
Oleksandria-0.27scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veres Rivne ↓

Oleksandria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Veres Rivne or draw
69%
Veres Rivne or Oleksandria
73%
Draw or Oleksandria
59%

Winning margin

Veres Rivne wins by 2+
19%
Oleksandria wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Veres Rivne 1+ goals
73%
Veres Rivne 2+ goals
38%
Veres Rivne 3+ goals
14%
Oleksandria 1+ goals
67%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
30%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)
57%
Oleksandria (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veres Rivne at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.33 · 5 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veres Rivne attack 1.12 + Oleksandria defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.31

Oleksandria attack 0.90 + Veres Rivne defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Veres Rivne scores more
41%
level
27%
Oleksandria scores more
31%

Veres Rivne at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Veres Rivne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Veres Rivne 1–1 Oleksandria

Veres Rivne and Oleksandria drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Avanhard in Rivne.