Veres Rivne 2–2 Oleksandria: Result & Stats

Veres Rivne

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Oleksandria

S. Vovchenko 55'

D. Klyots 26'

M. Mykhaylenko 17'

K. Kovalets 10'

5/24/2023

Premier League · Round 28Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Veres Rivne35%

×Draw25%

Oleksandria40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Veres RivneExpected goals in this matchOleksandria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.48

Veres Rivne

1.35

Oleksandria

1.48

Oleksandria creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

1.49

creates per match

1.23

1.73

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Veres Rivne

1.49

Oleksandria

1.23

allows per match

Veres Rivne

1.73

Oleksandria

1.22

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Veres Rivne-0.32scores less

Oleksandria-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veres Rivne ↓

Oleksandria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Veres Rivne or draw

60%

Veres Rivne or Oleksandria

75%

Draw or Oleksandria

65%

Winning margin

Veres Rivne wins by 2+

15%

Oleksandria wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Veres Rivne 1+ goals

74%

Veres Rivne 2+ goals

39%

Veres Rivne 3+ goals

15%

Oleksandria 1+ goals

77%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

43%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)

46%

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veres Rivne at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.73 · 12 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veres Rivne attack 1.49 + Oleksandria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.35

Oleksandria attack 1.23 + Veres Rivne defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Veres Rivne scores more

35%

level

25%

Oleksandria scores more

40%

Oleksandria at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

K. Kovalets↳ K. Sigeev

17'

M. Mykhaylenko↳ K. Kovalets

26'

D. Klyots↳ M. Gayduchyk

45+1'

S. Loginov← V. Bondarenko

46'

S. Sharay← O. Lebedenko

46'

O. Kozhushko← A. Kulakov

55'

S. Vovchenko↳ D. Balan

57'

D. Skorko← E. Mustafaev

73'

M. Shestakov← M. Gayduchyk

73'

V. Sharay← H. Pasich

81'

V. Dakhnovskyi← A. Bliznichenko

83'

Denys Balan

84'

O. Matkobozhyk← V. Kurko

84'

B. Kobzar← D. Miroshnichenko

84'

A. Shulyanskyi← S. Rybalka

90+2'

Mykola Mykhailenko

Shots

Statistics

VeresOleksandria

Overview

13Total Shots5

9Corners0

5Fouls3

Shots

13Total Shots5

4On Target2

7Off Target3

Discipline

5Fouls3

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

Premier League: Veres Rivne 2–2 Oleksandria

Veres Rivne and Oleksandria drew 2-2 in Premier League on May 24, 2023.

Goals: K. Kovalets (10'), M. Mykhaylenko (17'), D. Klyots (26'), S. Vovchenko (55').

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Rivne.

Veres Rivne vs Oleksandria — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Premier League: Veres Rivne 2–2 Oleksandria