Veres Rivne 0–1 Obolon'-Brovar II: Result & Stats

Veres Rivne

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Obolon'-Brovar II

D. Ostrovskyi 9'

10/23/2019

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 17Stadion Kolos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Veres Rivne60%

×Draw22%

Obolon'-Brovar II17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Veres RivneExpected goals in this matchObolon'-Brovar II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.88

Veres Rivne

1.86

Obolon'-Brovar II

0.88

Veres Rivne creates 111% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 22 away

1.90

creates per match

1.05

0.70

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Veres Rivne

1.90

Obolon'-Brovar II

1.05

allows per match

Veres Rivne

0.70

Obolon'-Brovar II

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veres Rivne+0.00on par

Obolon'-Brovar II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veres Rivne ↓

Obolon'-Brovar II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Veres Rivne or draw

83%

Veres Rivne or Obolon'-Brovar II

78%

Draw or Obolon'-Brovar II

40%

Winning margin

Veres Rivne wins by 2+

35%

Obolon'-Brovar II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Veres Rivne 1+ goals

84%

Veres Rivne 2+ goals

55%

Veres Rivne 3+ goals

28%

Obolon'-Brovar II 1+ goals

59%

Obolon'-Brovar II 2+ goals

22%

Obolon'-Brovar II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)

78%

Obolon'-Brovar II (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veres Rivne at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Obolon'-Brovar II away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veres Rivne attack 1.90 + Obolon'-Brovar II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.86

Obolon'-Brovar II attack 1.05 + Veres Rivne defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Veres Rivne scores more

60%

level

22%

Obolon'-Brovar II scores more

17%

Veres Rivne at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Veres Rivne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

D. Ostrovskyi

46'

T. Pinchuk← A. Evdokymov

64'

Y. Mate← V. Ulyanchenko

74'

V. Sad← M. Shestakov

78'

D. Sychevskyi← D. Ostrovskyi

82'

A. Arakelyan← T. Puchkovskyi

84'

V. Mykytyn← Y. Solomka

90'

Y. Dyshkant← E. Prokopenko

90'

V. Stepanenko← V. Tkach

Veres

Obolon'-Brovar

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Y. Virt

46'▲T. Pinchuk←▼A. Evdokymov

74'▲V. Sad←▼M. Shestakov

84'▲V. Mykytyn←▼Y. Solomka

Veres Rivne substitutes

PinchukSadMykytyn

Manager: O. Mazurenko

64'▲Y. Mate←▼V. Ulyanchenko

78'▲D. Sychevskyi←▼D. Ostrovskyi

82'▲A. Arakelyan←▼T. Puchkovskyi

90'▲Y. Dyshkant←▼E. Prokopenko

90'▲V. Stepanenko←▼V. Tkach

Obolon'-Brovar II substitutes

MateSychevskyiArakelyanDyshkantStepanenko