Veres Rivne 1–1 LNZ Cherkasy: Result & Stats

Veres Rivne

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

LNZ Cherkasy

M. Smiian 90+3'

B. Makouana 73'

5/25/2025

Premier League · Round 30Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Veres Rivne36%

×Draw28%

LNZ Cherkasy37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Veres RivneExpected goals in this matchLNZ Cherkasy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.20

Veres Rivne

1.18

LNZ Cherkasy

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

1.28

creates per match

1.10

1.29

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Veres Rivne

1.28

LNZ Cherkasy

1.10

allows per match

Veres Rivne

1.29

LNZ Cherkasy

1.07

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Veres Rivne-0.50scores less

LNZ Cherkasy+0.09on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veres Rivne ↓

LNZ Cherkasy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Veres Rivne or draw

63%

Veres Rivne or LNZ Cherkasy

72%

Draw or LNZ Cherkasy

64%

Winning margin

Veres Rivne wins by 2+

15%

LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Veres Rivne 1+ goals

69%

Veres Rivne 2+ goals

33%

Veres Rivne 3+ goals

12%

LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals

70%

LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals

34%

LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)

49%

LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veres Rivne at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.29 · 9 matches

LNZ Cherkasy away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.07 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veres Rivne attack 1.28 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.10 + Veres Rivne defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Veres Rivne scores more

36%

level

28%

LNZ Cherkasy scores more

37%

LNZ Cherkasy at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "LNZ Cherkasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Kliots

Veres Rivne · M

7.3

Match Events

38'

Semen Vovchenko

45'

Mollo Bessala

46'

V. Tankovskyi← I. Putria

46'

B. Makouana← G. Bessala

52'

Giorgi Kutsia

54'

H. Pasich← V. Naumets

61'

Dmytro Klyots

65'

Vitalii Dakhnovskyi

65'

Nazarii Muravskyi

73'

B. Makouana↳ A. Avahimian

74'

M. Protasevych← G. Kutsia

74'

M. Smiian← V. Dakhnovskyi

81'

D. Blahodarnyi← J. Bennette

83'

D. Hodia← V. Kucherov

83'

O. Lepskyi← V. Sharai

90'

Muharrem Jashari

90'

Viacheslav Tankovskyi

90+2'

M. Jashari← A. Avahimian

90+3'

M. Smiian↳ D. Kliots

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VeresLNZ

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots10

1.79Expected Goals (xG)1.28

5Corners8

17Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots10

4On Target4

6Off Target4

2Blocked2

10Inside Box9

3Outside Box1

Passing

42%Possession58%

293Total Passes351

222Accurate Passes295

76%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls11

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2