Veres Rivne 5–1 Kramatorsk: Result & Stats

Veres Rivne

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Kramatorsk

M. Shestakov 81'

S. Petko 61'

V. Dakhnovskyi 23'

O. Boroday 16' (OG)

M. Sergiychuk 9'

P. Pokhytaylo 88'

6/5/2021

Persha Liga · Round 29Stadion Kolos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Veres Rivne69%

×Draw20%

Kramatorsk11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Veres RivneExpected goals in this matchKramatorsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.65

Veres Rivne

1.98

Kramatorsk

0.65

Veres Rivne creates 205% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 40 away

2.38

creates per match

0.85

0.44

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Veres Rivne

2.38

Kramatorsk

0.85

allows per match

Veres Rivne

0.44

Kramatorsk

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veres Rivne+0.00on par

Kramatorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veres Rivne ↓

Kramatorsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Veres Rivne or draw

89%

Veres Rivne or Kramatorsk

80%

Draw or Kramatorsk

31%

Winning margin

Veres Rivne wins by 2+

43%

Kramatorsk wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Veres Rivne 1+ goals

86%

Veres Rivne 2+ goals

59%

Veres Rivne 3+ goals

31%

Kramatorsk 1+ goals

48%

Kramatorsk 2+ goals

14%

Kramatorsk 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)

86%

Kramatorsk (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veres Rivne at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.44 · 16 matches

Kramatorsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.57 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veres Rivne attack 2.38 + Kramatorsk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.98

Kramatorsk attack 0.85 + Veres Rivne defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Veres Rivne scores more

69%

level

20%

Kramatorsk scores more

11%

Veres Rivne at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Veres Rivne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

M. Sergiychuk

16'

O. BorodayOwn goal

23'

V. Dakhnovskyi

24'

Y. Troyanovskyi← D. Safonov

26'

O. Chebanenko← Guttiner

41'

A. Kozlov← D. Shynkarenko

55'

D. Pidruchnyi← R. Tolochko

57'

S. Petko← S. Panasenko

61'

S. Petko

65'

M. Shestakov← R. Gegedosh

65'

V. Kucherov← M. Polyulyakh

72'

V. Tymofienko← H. Pasich

73'

E. Gunichev← M. Ermolenko

75'

D. Povoroznyuk← M. Sergiychuk

81'

M. Shestakov

88'

P. Pokhytaylo

Veres

Kramatorsk

🥅

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⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Sergiychu

Manager: Y. Virt

57'▲S. Petko←▼S. Panasenko

65'▲M. Shestakov←▼R. Gegedosh

65'▲V. Kucherov←▼M. Polyulyakh

72'▲V. Tymofienko←▼H. Pasich

75'▲D. Povoroznyuk←▼M. Sergiychuk

Veres Rivne substitutes

PetkoShestakovKucherovTymofienkoPovoroznyukDanylyukMakhnevGukBabiychukGayduchykSavoshkoYushchyshyn

Manager: O. Gorodov

24'▲Y. Troyanovskyi←▼D. Safonov

26'▲O. Chebanenko←▼Guttiner

41'▲A. Kozlov←▼D. Shynkarenko

55'▲D. Pidruchnyi←▼R. Tolochko

73'▲E. Gunichev←▼M. Ermolenko

Kramatorsk substitutes

TroyanovskyiChebanenkoKozlovPidruchnyiGunichevKelitSkotarenkoYakubenko

Match Recap: Veres Rivne vs Kramatorsk

Veres Rivne beat Kramatorsk 5-1 in Persha Liga on June 5, 2021.

Goals: M. Sergiychuk (9'), O. Boroday (16' o.g.), V. Dakhnovskyi (23'), S. Petko (61'), M. Shestakov (81'), P. Pokhytaylo (88').

The match was played at Stadion Kolos in Mlyniv.

Veres Rivne vs Kramatorsk — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Veres Rivne vs Kramatorsk