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Veres Rivne vs Alians Lypova Dolyna — Persha Liga 2019

Veres Rivne
Veres Rivne
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Alians Lypova Dolyna
Alians Lypova Dolyna
5/21/2021Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 27Stadion Kolos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Veres Rivne56%
×Draw23%
Alians Lypova Dolyna21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veres Rivne
1.77
Alians Lypova Dolyna
0.98

Veres Rivne creates 81% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

creates per match

Veres Rivne
2.38
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.52

allows per match

Veres Rivne
0.44
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.16

finishing

Veres Rivne+0.00on par
Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veres Rivne ↓

Alians Lypova Dolyna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Veres Rivne or draw
79%
Veres Rivne or Alians Lypova Dolyna
77%
Draw or Alians Lypova Dolyna
44%

Winning margin

Veres Rivne wins by 2+
31%
Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Veres Rivne 1+ goals
83%
Veres Rivne 2+ goals
53%
Veres Rivne 3+ goals
26%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals
62%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals
26%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)
73%
Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veres Rivne at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.44 · 16 matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veres Rivne attack 2.38 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.77

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 1.52 + Veres Rivne defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Veres Rivne scores more
56%
level
23%
Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more
21%

Veres Rivne at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Veres Rivne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veres Rivne vs Alians Lypova Dolyna

Veres Rivne and Alians Lypova Dolyna drew 3-3 in Persha Liga on May 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Kolos in Mlyniv.